Like most teams across the NHL, the Pittsburgh Penguins had some facets of their game that were strong and others that were weaker.

But perhaps more so than a majority of clubs, the contrast between different areas was quite pronounced.

In a nutshell, the Penguins were at their best in traditional 5-on-5 scenarios and were pretty good killing penalties. The power play and 3-on-3 overtime periods were weak links.

Below is a situational examination of the 2023-24 Penguins.

5 on 5

Throughout the course of the year, the Penguins’ primary strength was playing at even strength.

The team scored 179 goals in 5-on-5 play, sixth-most in the NHL.

Analytically speaking, that number should have been even higher. The Penguins produced fewer goals than anticipated — 6.81 fewer to be exact — as evidenced by their 185.81 expected goals, per Natural Stat Trick.

Last year, the discrepancy between analytics and results were even more eyebrow-raising, as the Penguins finished with 168 goals at standard even strength, well below their expected goals total of 202.72.

This season, coach Mike Sullivan was pleased with what the analytics were telling him. That said, neither he nor the club’s players seemed to draw any conclusions about why such a gap existed in the first place.

“There’s been a lot of positive things with our underlying numbers,” Sullivan said in early March. “At the end of the day, we understand that the actuals are the most important, and that’s where we’ve got to try to reconcile the difference. There’s no easy answer for that.”

Power play

When the Penguins went on the man-advantage, their issue of “actuals,” to borrow Sullivan’s words, not matching up with analytics was even more glaring.

Viewing the power play from the analytics angle is where things get interesting, or perhaps more accurately, frustrating.

The Penguins’ 66.83 expected goals were third-best in the league while their 40 actual goals scored ranked 28th.

Despite all its firepower in the form of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, newcomer Erik Karlsson and for much of the year, Jake Guentzel, not to mention a talented supporting cast, the power play was a liability all season, finishing with a 15.2% conversion rate that ranked 30th in the NHL.

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Only the Columbus Blue Jackets and Philadelphia Flyers had less effective power plays.

The 40 goals that it did score, a meager total to begin with, feels even more insignificant when considering the Penguins allowed 12 shorthanded goals, which tied the Montreal Canadiens for most in the league.

Two seasons ago, the Penguins had a power play that finished 19th in the NHL (20.2%) and was considered a failure.

For reasons that have yet to be answered, the Penguins took a significant step back on the man-advantage, even with the presence of offensive maestro Karlsson.

“It’s tough to (assess) and I don’t think it (was) just one thing,” Karlsson said. “I think that we tried as hard as we could to figure everything out, and once it started going in the other direction, it was too hard for us to get out of it. What that is, I don’t really know. I don’t think, again, there’s just one single thing. I think it was just a snowball effect that (none) of us could stop.”

Penalty kill

The Penguins’ penalty kill was dependable for the majority of the season.

While not elite, it certainly wasn’t atop the list of reasons the club failed to accrue enough points and wins to make a push into the playoffs.

On the year, it finished at 80.7%, tied for 10th in the NHL.

Struggles did ensue early on when key penalty killers Matt Nieto (who ultimately didn’t play after Nov. 30) and Noel Acciari (multiple stints on the injured list) were out.

But the club found steady presences in forwards Lars Eller and Drew O’Connor, as well as defenseman Marcus Petterson, who led all Penguins players with 2:40 of shorthanded ice time per night.

Letang was next with 2:32 and late in the season, when the Penguins recalled defenseman Jack St. Ivany from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, the 24-year-old looked good in 1:46 of penalty-killing duty per game.

Overtime

The Penguins played 18 overtime periods this season, going 4-9 in the five-minute, 3-on-3 extra frames.

The other five overtimes ended in a draw, requiring a shootout, where the Penguins went 2-3.

Given the team missed the postseason by three points, it’s not unreasonable to identify overtime struggles as a major reason the Penguins didn’t make the cut.

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The Penguins’ performance in overtime ranged from ineffective to inept, as the club never quite figured out how to translate having a number of seemingly advantageous three-man on-ice combinations into a regular winning result.

During the Penguins’ season-ending media availability, Sullivan offered insight into what exactly plagued his team when it had to play overtime.

“We didn’t do as good a job as we’re capable of with the possession game, and that’s an essential element of overtime,” Sullivan said. “There’s a lot that goes into that. We’ve got to be more selective when we choose to attack. It starts with our shot selection because usually, when you watch overtimes, if a shot on goal takes place, it can set off a domino effect of events after that just because there’s not a lot of players on the ice.

“I didn’t think we were as diligent with our possession game and using line changes to out-change teams and have the ability to take advantage of a fatigued group on the ice.”

It doesn’t take much digging to find examples of what Sullivan alluded to.

In a 3-2 overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 8, Eller, Karlsson and O’Connor all got stuck on the ice for the entirety of what ended up being a 90-second period.

For tired players on the ice for double their usual shift lengths, that’s not an insignificant period of time.

The Penguins were unable to change, and Jake McCabe won the game with an up-close wrister past Alex Nedeljkovic.

On March 24, after the Penguins had blown a 4-0 lead on the road against the Colorado Avalanche, Crosby, Letang and Bryan Rust took the ice for overtime.

Crosby lost the opening faceoff to Nathan MacKinnon, the Penguins got zero offensive zone time, and just 54 seconds in, Jonathan Drouin scored the game-winner.

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Both of those examples took place in the final month of the season, but similar slip-ups are littered throughout the whole season.

To their credit, the Penguins occasionally put together solid overtime performances.

Most notably was probably their final overtime of the year on April 11 vs. Detroit, which could offer a blueprint for how to be better in those situations next year.

Granted, they blew a two-goal third-period lead beforehand, but in that extra frame, the Penguins recovered from losing the opening faceoff, executed five line changes without issue and were wise with the puck, eventually setting up a dramatic game-winning slap shot by Karlsson.

“Our shot selection, when we chose to shoot the puck, was more appropriate and when we had opportunities to score,” Sullivan said after the win. “When we didn’t, we hung back, we made way better decisions with the puck and not forcing something that’s not there, not allowing ourselves to get steered into short ice so that we allow them to pressure us and force a turnover.

“Possession in overtime is so critically important and line changes are an extension of that, and shot selection is an extension of possession. If you shoot the puck from low-percentage areas, you’re going to run the risk of giving it back.”

Justin Guerriero is a TribLive reporter covering the Penguins, Pirates and college sports. A Pittsburgh native, he is a Central Catholic and University of Colorado graduate. He joined the Trib in 2022 after covering the Colorado Buffaloes for Rivals and freelancing for the Denver Post. He can be reached at jguerriero@triblive.com.

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